Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 2.911752 3.478768 4.112439 4.870970 5.752044 6.740896 7.932352
2025-11-23 2.090489 2.810958 3.701307 4.873764 6.367252 8.195337 10.590218
2025-11-30 1.571464 2.335051 3.361258 4.822192 6.825788 9.451112 13.119802
2025-12-07 1.172230 1.905656 2.967682 4.586233 6.951409 10.234223 15.075457
2025-12-14 0.940238 1.655100 2.760140 4.546209 7.300790 11.313235 17.500475
2025-12-21 0.772578 1.463437 2.596990 4.528735 7.654279 12.404395 20.019048
2025-12-28 0.693387 1.399627 2.619332 4.793448 8.455612 14.221058 23.763836
2026-01-04 0.606345 1.302515 2.566149 4.917953 9.033999 15.733065 27.158147
2026-01-11 0.545184 1.240577 2.561796 5.119230 9.752182 17.519877 31.124190
2026-01-18 0.469888 1.134640 2.458035 5.123583 10.122438 18.755308 34.277799
2026-01-25 0.388722 0.998820 2.273747 4.948789 10.145459 19.392408 36.464106
2026-02-01 0.321493 0.878693 2.100053 4.766953 10.127473 19.943713 38.528796
2026-02-08 0.279429 0.809431 2.024160 4.776220 10.483575 21.211659 41.991666
2026-02-15 0.243641 0.747616 1.954465 4.788716 10.846864 22.523698 45.639453
2026-02-22 0.209352 0.681407 1.863246 4.740920 11.080219 23.606768 48.943133
2026-03-01 0.170373 0.592079 1.700895 4.509399 10.901626 23.875197 50.725523
2026-03-08 0.147236 0.542318 1.626917 4.470240 11.127115 24.952067 54.132112
2026-03-15 0.128410 0.500633 1.566086 4.453109 11.396912 26.135706 57.826943
2026-03-22 0.122769 0.500091 1.615260 4.713910 12.320007 28.731443 64.512691
2026-03-29 0.112465 0.481181 1.610419 4.836579 12.934930 30.724850 70.103522
2026-04-05 0.105593 0.472584 1.633576 5.034889 13.746561 33.193767 76.826700
2026-04-12 0.093626 0.441920 1.586454 5.039178 14.091171 34.675900 81.583815
2026-04-19 0.078658 0.394900 1.480557 4.866962 13.982969 35.151017 84.237115